➤ SIGNAL
Demand is recovering nationally even as the last of the pipeline delivers
The strength is concentrated at the largest end of the size spectrum
This is an update to our June 11 read on Sun Belt industrial softening. The national picture cuts the other way: leasing is racing toward a record at 249.8M SF, up 14% year over year, and net absorption rebounded to 43.1M SF.
Vacancy still drifted up to 6.7% — but that's a supply artifact, not a demand failure. Completions at 55.4M SF kept outrunning absorption, so the vacancy line reflects buildings finishing, not tenants leaving.
The composition is the signal. Mega big-box above 1.2M SF posted the strongest gains, pointing to large occupiers — 3PLs and reshoring-driven manufacturers — committing to scale again, while small- and mid-bay activity stayed muted.
Implications
For owners, the divergence rewards precision. Well-located big-box with credit tenants is clearing; speculative mid-bay in oversupplied submarkets is not. The vacancy headline will keep scaring passive capital even as leasing sets records — which is exactly where mispricing opens for operators who underwrite the size segment and submarket, not the national average.
Key Takeaways
- “Record leasing with rising vacancy isn't a contradiction — it's the supply wave clearing while demand quietly comes back.”
- “Source: NJBIZ / ROI-NJ / Seoul Economic Daily / CRE Daily”
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