The Signal
Office liquidity exists — it's just concentrated in the Sun Belt and in leased assets.
A 20-year institutional owner found a clearing price without distress.
The office story is a two-market story: Sun Belt liquidity vs. gateway distress.
One day after the market watched Chicago's Aon Center get re-marked to a fraction of its old basis, a South Florida office complex traded cleanly at ~$281/SF. Same asset class, opposite signal.
The difference is geography and lease-up. Coral Gables office benefits from Sun Belt migration and constrained supply; a well-held, leased asset there attracts real bidders. That's a functioning market, not a distressed one.
The structural read: "office is dead" is too blunt. Capital is discriminating by metro and by occupancy. Leased Sun Belt office clears; vacant gateway towers reset. Underwriting has to price that split, not the headline.
Implications
Owners of leased Sun Belt office have a live exit; owners of vacant gateway product are still marking down. For buyers, the opportunity set splits between yield (leased Sun Belt) and deep-value repositioning (gateway distress) — two very different risk profiles wearing the same "office" label.
Key Takeaways
- “Office isn't one market — leased Sun Belt trades while gateway towers reset.”
- “Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct (crenews) · July 10, 2026”
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