➤ The Signal
Hotels are posting a genuine growth streak — four-plus percent RevPAR gains and broad top-market participation. After a flat-to-negative 2025, that reversal is real and mostly driven by a heavy events calendar pulling demand into specific cities.
Las Vegas is the tell: a 17.9% RevPAR jump on concerts, conventions, and sports is not a base-demand story — it’s a schedule. Markets with the calendar are outrunning those without it, which makes the strength real but uneven.
That is why the forecast cut matters. Analysts trimming the full year toward 3% even while prints run near 5% are signaling that the back half leans on assumptions — softer consumer travel, tougher comps — that the strong spring doesn’t guarantee.
➤ Implications
Owners weighing hold-versus-sell are pricing a market where trailing performance and forward guidance point different directions. Event-dependent markets carry calendar risk; underwriting to trailing RevPAR without discounting the forecast is where sellers get the better of buyers.
Key Takeaways
- “When the current number is 5% and the forecast is 3%, the trade isn’t the RevPAR — it’s which number you underwrite.”
- “Source: CoStar / STR / Tourism Economics — May–June 2026”
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