➤ The Signal
The apartment cycle is splitting in two. The Sun Belt markets that overbuilt through 2024 are now purging supply — Austin, Denver, and Phoenix are all cutting deliveries sharply, which sets up their rent recovery for 2027–28. Meanwhile Los Angeles, long supply-constrained, is suddenly the nation’s permitting leader.
That divergence is the underwriting story. A pro forma that treats “multifamily supply” as a single national variable will misprice both ends.
➤ Implications
Buy the Sun Belt into weakness for the delivery air-pocket ahead; underwrite coastal deals against a heavier near-term supply load than the last five years implied.
Key Takeaways
- “There is no national apartment supply story left — only a map.”
- “Source: RealPage Analytics · Multi-Housing News — July 2026”
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